关于中国外贸依存度的探讨
摘要: 提到中国的外贸依存度，不禁有人惊呼过高，会对中国今后的经济发展产生负面影响，并与持反面态度的人进行激烈辩论。面对中国经济发展一片大好形式下的高贸易依存度问题，本文先从客观数据入手，叙述了中国外贸依存度的现状及提升的原因，再从正反两方面一起入手，论述了中国现今外贸依存度的影响，并提出了对负面影响的规避方法及对中国外贸依存度的展望，最后得出结论，中国的高贸易依存度利弊共存，必须谨慎调控。
关键词：外贸依存度 产业结构 外资企业 贸易摩擦
Discussion about Dependence of China 's International Trade
Abstract: The foreign trade degree of dependency is refers to a country foreign trade total amount and GDP (GDP) ratio, is uses in weighing this country economy to one of international market level of dependency height targets. Because, the foreign trade divides into exports and imports two parts, therefore, the foreign trade degree of dependency may divide into the exportation degree of dependency and the import degree of dependency correspondingly, namely import and export volume separately with GDP ratio. Joined World Trade Organization since 2001, China's foreign trade degree of dependency climbed successively, according to the department of commercial affairs, State statistical bureau and so on the official statistical data demonstrated, in 2001, China's foreign trade degree of dependency was 44%, 2002 years is 51%, 2003 years rise to 60%, 2004 years is 70%, but up to 2005, our country's foreign trade degree of dependency already promoted to 80%. On the one hand indicated China participated in the global integration advancement acceleration, the Chinese economy and the world economics already forms interdependent the partnership, on the other hand the high trade degree of dependency has also exposed our country trade destination centralism, the foreign trade commodity structure unreasonable as well as the strategic resources product import degree of dependency climbs and so on many malpractices. This article in analyzes our country foreign trade degree of dependency the change and in the origin foundation, the key analysis foreign trade degree of dependency enhances to our country economy influence, and proposed how regulates the foreign trade degree of dependency reasonably.
Key words: Trade Dependency Industry structure Foreign capital enterprise Trade friction
0.引言
据统计数据显示中国近年来外贸依存度高居不下，外贸依存度从1978年的9.8%提高到1990年的30%，2001年的44%，2002年为51%，2003年约为60%，2004年上升到70%，2005年更是高达80%，而同期美国、日本的外贸依存度则维持在大约14-20%的范围内，国内就中国外贸依存度过高是否会带来发展的高风险展开了激烈的辩论。认为外贸依存度过高有碍中国发展的观点主要认为，首先，过高的外贸依存度将激发他国与中国的经贸冲突，这必然恶化我国和平发展的国际环境；其次，过高的外贸依存度将加大中国经济所面临的国际经济和政治风险；第三，我国能源和重要资源依赖进口情况日趋严重，当前国际上争夺战略资源的斗争日趋激烈，我国资源的安全形势不容乐观；此外还牵涉到了贸易发展不平衡及劳动力过于廉价等问题。
